Energy. Part I.

In my trading studies, I have found oil (energy) to be the joker in the deck.  As of late, the market responds overwhelmingly to the up/down price of oil.  Hell, we get terrible employment numbers, but if that oil is down, markets aren’t sweating.  Seeing that this is an election year, I have decided to write/ponder/tackle what each canidate is doing to put a wrap on oil.  Ill start with Obama because his strategies are more controversial.  His first plan is to place windfall taxes on oil company profits.  This idea has killed me.  As I’ve said before, market intervention is only necessary if the shit has hit the fan.  Well, real estate tanked. The government responded by bailing fannie/freddie.  Oil nearly hit 150/barrel ( trading mid 120s today).  Consumers now have to put groceries on to credit cards they can barely pay, etc etc.  I would have to say I am neutral on Obama’s plan.  I see both angles.  However, with demand degradation, oil prices will decline short term.  Soon enough, the olympics will be over and China’s demand for oil will resume on pre-olympic pace.  I don’t have an answer on this one.  I don’t really know if I would trade long/short on energy at the moment.   I added a chart of the US Oil fund.  It is an ETF that tracks oil.  I use decision point’s PMO as analysis tool.  If you look at the weekly chart, it appears to have a fresh PMO/EMA cross which could signal bearish (decrease in oil price) or intersect again to go higher.  The monthly PMO/EMA chart shows an extremely bullish outlook which can mean it’s time to drop or press higher.  Enjoy.  Edit: I’m learning how to add pictures.  Graph will come soon.